Trigger

The attempted assassination of a former President – and leading Presidential contender – should be a moment for inflection. Will it instead trigger something worse?

As I woke up from my Saturday afternoon nap – marked on my calendar as a “foreign policy briefing” à la President Biden – a friend texted me.

“Trump just got shot sounds like?”

Earlier this week, I lofted a semi-rhetorical question to an elected official of importance on the political left, “Can this Presidential election be any worse? I know it can, but I don’t want to find out how.” The text was left on read, an expectation I had due to the internal chaos of the Democratic Party. On Saturday, we found out.

In modern American political history, the assassination (Kennedy) or attempted assassination (Reagan) of a sitting President leads to a general coalescence of the American electorate around that individual, their family, and even their extended family (political party). Americans, mimicking a sort of white blood cell, begin to insulate the wound inflicted upon the Republic.

Actually, most moments of national chaos or tragedy lead to this. President George W. Bush saw his approval ratings skyrocket to 90% following the September 11th attacks. That wasn’t because those who voted for Al Gore a year earlier randomly began to embrace Bush’s domestic policies – it was because Americans believed that, for at least a moment, there was something bigger than the petty politics of that day.

Saturday’s assassination attempt on Donald Trump should be an inflection point for our nation, but I fear that it could trigger something far more damaging.

Unlike the successful attempt on Kennedy or the failed attempt on Reagan, we’re dealing with a former President and current candidate for the Presidency. Like most things involving Donald Trump, we’re in uncharted territory. I tend to agree with many preliminary observations that this will almost certainly lead to Trump’s victory in November, if for no other reason than Americans tend not to want to give attempted assassins what they want.

That said, I think the effects on November’s election are perhaps the least consequential.

It’ll be a few days or weeks before new polling shows what effect this has on the American electorate, but I imagine we’ll be slightly surprised at how little it changes things. As of Friday, Nate Silver already had Biden at just a 27% chance of winning the electoral college, down from 35% prior to the first Trump/Biden debate. That’s not insignificant, but considering that the Democratic Party ripped apart at the seams overnight due to Biden’s terrible debate performance, you’d expect more of a drop.

As such, Saturday’s events may very well lead to Silver revising his numbers soon. But is that really what matters?

A quick peruse of X, Facebook, or any social media site revealed a cacophony from folks across the political spectrum. Many rose to the occasion, but a disappointing number of others finding the opportunity to take shots at political foes, deepen the partisan divide, and further weaken our republic to benefit themselves.

An example of this was when the identity of the shooter – Thomas Matthew Crooks – was revealed on Saturday night. Immediately, both sides clutched onto one of two pieces of public information they could scrape together in short notice. For many on the left, the fact that the would-be assassin was a registered Republican seemed to disprove that his actions were motivated by their own politics. Those on the right were quick to identify that Crooks seemingly made just one political donation in his two years of adulthood: a $15 donation to a progressive organization via ActBlue. Checkmate!

I don’t need to see Crooks’ voter registration or political donations to know that he was a deeply unhinged individual, divorced from reality, who probably shot the former President because he didn’t agree with his politics. But, Thomas Matthew Crooks is one individual. One man, one gun, and a handful of bullets. What’s more telling than that one individual is how we, as a collective, respond to this moment in history.

Conspiracy theories began to crop up quicker than any facts from the ground in Butler could be reported. One theory was that the entire scene was staged in an effort to benefit Trump’s electoral chances. Another claimed that the Secret Service must’ve been in on the attempt.

Political violence – while an incredibly important part of the American story (see: Revolutionary War, Civil War, etc) – is extremely detrimental to this glorious experiment in self-government. The founding of our nation, the outlining of clear guidelines for how political differences are settled via electing and legislating, was a reset to how disagreements were handled throughout human history. Surprising to many, a democratic republic doesn’t simply survive with a constitution and laws. It requires a citizenry that is dedicated to its preservation and willing to accept electoral and legislative defeat should the previously agreed upon process be followed.

Looking at the political landscape, I see politicians, politicos, and pundits less willing to accept defeat. More disturbing, I see more and more Americans willing to jettison the process to achieve their desired political ends. This inclination spans the political spectrum. It showed itself on the right when Donald Trump and his supporters refused to admit they lost an election. It showed itself on the left when Colorado attempted to remove Trump from the ballot. You can argue that one side is more elegant in its approach, but both are utilizing anti-democratic means to attempt to subvert the will of voters to achieve their political goals.

Thomas Matthew Crooks was just one man, but there are millions of Americans who today wish his aim was a bit better. That worries me much more than a single, twisted individual on a rooftop. While those Americans may not be willing to pull the trigger themselves, an increasing number of Americans (almost 1 in 4) now view political violence as a potential option for settling our disagreements.

Saturday should trigger soul-searching within every elected leader, talk show personality, and politically engaged voter. Regardless of which side is “worse” when it comes to rhetoric and violent tendencies, it is unquestionably true that both sides have made little effort to lower the temperature.

Will more Americans begin to marry the idea of drawing outside the lines with political violence?

Will Saturday’s event lead to further escalation between a deeply divided American population?

Following the events on Saturday, it was reported that Joe Biden and Donald Trump had a “respectful” phone call. President Biden addressed the nation, asking to “lower the temperature” on our political discourse. Donald Trump is reportedly rewriting his Thursday night convention speech to focus on unity. I hope these efforts are genuine and lasting, not simply convenient for the moment.

Donald Trump’s recovery seems to be going well – he was spotted golfing the next day. Unfortunately, our republic seems to be without the proper care it needs to begin healing.